For each intercourse, the new record price are discussed playing with city, logarithm regarding reached age separated of the 70, and piecewise quadratic features of age at the exposure joining efficiently within age step step three0 and you may fifty
All round strategy for so it investigation was to complement designs equivalent to those that have in the past become placed on strong cyst incidence (1) and you will leukemia death (23), and you will sample if the record and/or radiation-related continuously exposure components of those activities differed between very first and you will next cancers. Person-age (PY) at risk and you may matters of first and you may 2nd number one cancer tumors cases was cross-classified from the following the parameters: projected radiation dosage to your rectum and you will marrow (21 kinds for each: 0–cuatro, 5–twenty four, 25–forty-two, 50–74, 75–99, 100–124, 125–149, 150–174, 175–199, 200–249, 250–299, 300–499, 500–749, 750–999, step one,000–step one,249, 1,250–step 1,499, 1,500–step one,749, step 1,750–step one,999, dos,000–2,499, 2,500–dos,999, and you can ?step 3,one hundred thousand mGy), city (c = ?1/2 for Hiroshima, +1/2 to possess Nagasaki), intercourse (s = ?1/2 for men, +1/dos for ladies), ages in the course of this new bombing (fifteen classes: 0–cuatro, 5–9, …, 65–69, ?70), reached decades (17 groups: 5–9, 10–fourteen, …, 80–84, ?85), schedule go out (10 groups: 1958–1960, 1961–1965, …, 1991–1996, and 1997–2002), follow-up months (P = one or two having prior to first no. 1 cancers diagnosis otherwise >180 days once first prognosis, respectively), and you will go after-upwards day (nine classes: 0–4, 5–9, …, 35–39, and you will ?forty years time immemorial of the pursue-right up months). Concurrently, the realize-up period to own next cancers was then mix-tabulated by many years initially disease analysis (fifteen groups: 0–4, 5–nine, …, 65–69, ?70) and you will, getting analyses from second top cancer pursuing the certain very first disease designs, by the type of first cancer tumors (belly, lung, colon, liver, nipple, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, thyroid, bladder, or other). For every single of those tissues, brand new variety of number one cancer tumors of various products had been determined, also the indicate thinking off estimated anus and marrow amounts (generically denoted d), years at the time of the brand new bombing (e), attained age (a), follow-upwards date (t) and you will, with the 2nd cancers pursue-upwards several months, mean many years initially analysis (f) and mean time as basic prognosis (m).
History cost to own solid tumors was basically modeled because sex-certain parametric characteristics away from town, reached decades, and age in the coverage (equal to birth cohort)
Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate and compare the radiation dose-responses for first and second primary cancers. The number of cases for a given cancer type was assumed to be a Poisson variate with mean ?d,c,s,a great,e,t,p,f,meters = PYd,c,s,a beneficial,elizabeth,t,p,f,yards ? d,c,s,a good,e,t,p,f,m, where PY denotes person years (PY) at risk and ? the incidence rate. Risk was represented by linear excess relative risk (ERR) models of the form ? d , c , s , a , e , t , p , f , m = ? 0 ( c , s , a , e , t , p , f , m ) [ 1 + E ? R ? R ( d , c , s , a , e , t , p , f , m ) ] or excess additive risk (EAR) models of the form ? d , c , s , a , e , t , p , f , m = ? 0 ( c , s , a , e , t , p , f , m ) + E ? R ? R ( d , c , s , a , e , t , p , f , m ) where ?0(.) is the background cancer incidence rate for subjects with zero dose, and ERR(.) and EAR(.) are the ERR and EAR associated with dose d.
Analyses of solid cancer incidence were based primarily on linear ERR 
models, although EAR models were also fit. A smooth piecewise quadratic function with knots at e1 and e2 can be written as Q(e) = ?1e + ?2e 2 + ?3max(e ? e1,0) 2 + ?3max(e ? e2,0) 2 . To compare first and second primary cancers, coefficients of the terms in the background model were allowed to differ according to follow-up period, and an additional term was included for age at diagnosis of first primary cancer (centered at age 55). The general model for background incidence rates in the analysis of all solid tumors was therefore ? 0 ( c , s , a , e , p , f ) = exp [ ? s , p + ? c , s , p c + ? a , s , p ln ( a / 70 ) + Q s , p ( e ) + ? f , s , p I ( P = 3 ) ( f ? 55 ) ] where I(.) is the indicator function and Qs,p(.) denotes different piecewise quadratic functions for each (s,p). Analyses of specific solid tumors such as stomach or lung cancer were based on smaller numbers of cases, especially for second primary cancers; therefore, these analyses used a simpler background model in which the effect of age at exposure was represented by terms of the form ?age,s,pln(e/30) rather than the piecewise quadratic terms Qs,p(e). Differences in background rates of first and second prieter values for p = 1 and p = 2.
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